Looking back before you look forward
Once in a while, you get some really, really great advice - so great that it is the most obvious thing in the world once you hear it. Its the kind of advice that definitely bears repeating; so here goes. I was chatting about the strategy of a certain product with a senior product lead over lunch. I started talking about what it should be doing going forward, when the person I was talking to asked me pause. "Given where they are, and what they knew then, what do you think should've happened six months ago instead?" I paused for thought. "If it is hard to answer that question" , he continued, "even when you are 100% omniscient about how things will play out, its less likely you can figure out the right path going forward." The past isn't a predictor of the future, but it does inform it and at the very least “Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.” - George Santayana As obvious as it is, this kind of thinking