I was chatting about the strategy of a certain product with a senior product lead over lunch. I started talking about what it should be doing going forward, when the person I was talking to asked me pause.
"Given where they are, and what they knew then, what do you think should've happened six months ago instead?"
I paused for thought.
"If it is hard to answer that question", he continued, "even when you are 100% omniscient about how things will play out, its less likely you can figure out the right path going forward."
The past isn't a predictor of the future, but it does inform it and at the very least
“Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.” - George Santayana As obvious as it is, this kind of thinking doesn't happen…