The power of the exponential....
A few weeks ago, Ray Kurzweil was at Google. I caught the screening of the documentary about him: The Transcendent Man and then stayed for a Q&A with Ray and the director. It was fascinating to say the least! I'm not even going to try and summarize his life and theories (that's what the Internet is for.:)), but what stayed with me most is a line from the documentary: "Ray's tool is the Exponential" Its easy to forget the power of exponential growth and accelerating returns , which mean technology grows at rates we simply don't take into account or easily accept because the implications seem so bizzare. Summary below: "An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed